Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

DET

42%

ATL

58%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–22

Winner DET. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense−0.6 DET
• Rushing defense+0.6 ATL
• Home field+0.5 ATL
• Passing offense−0.3 DET