Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

DET

50%

JAX

50%

Predicted winner

JAX

Confidence

46%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

34–16

Winner DET. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.5 JAX
• Scoring−0.2 DET
• Rest+0.2 JAX
• Turnovers−0.1 DET