Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

DEN

22%

NE

78%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

65%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

18–12

Winner DEN. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.6 NE
• Home field+0.5 NE
• Passing defense+0.5 NE
• Points allowed−0.3 DEN