Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Before kickoff

CIN

9%

IND

91%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

76%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–31

Winner IND. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense+1.2 IND
• Home field+0.5 IND
• Scoring+0.5 IND
• Points allowed−0.4 CIN