Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Before kickoff

ATL

40%

MIN

60%

Predicted winner

MIN

Confidence

55%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

40–23

Winner ATL. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.5 MIN
• Passing defense+0.5 MIN
• Passing offense+0.4 MIN
• Points allowed−0.3 ATL