Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Before kickoff

TB

70%

CHI

30%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

60%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

19–20

Winner CHI. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−0.9 TB
• Rushing defense−0.8 TB
• Passing defense+0.6 CHI
• Home field+0.5 CHI