Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Before kickoff

LV

37%

KC

63%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

55%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

40–32

Winner LV. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Points allowed−0.7 LV
• Passing defense+0.5 KC
• Home field+0.5 KC
• Rushing defense−0.5 LV