New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

Before kickoff

NE

48%

KC

52%

Predicted winner

KC

Confidence

44%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

10–26

Winner KC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense−0.6 NE
• Home field+0.5 KC
• Passing offense−0.3 NE
• Offensive touchdowns+0.2 KC