Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

LAC

28%

TB

72%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–38

Winner TB. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.8 TB
• Passing defense−0.8 LAC
• Rushing defense+0.8 TB
• Home field+0.5 TB