Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Before kickoff

DEN

43%

NYJ

57%

Predicted winner

NYJ

Confidence

48%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

37–28

Winner DEN. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.5 NYJ
• Points allowed+0.4 NYJ
• Turnovers−0.2 DEN
• Interception rate−0.2 DEN