Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

Before kickoff

BUF

40%

LV

60%

Predicted winner

LV

Confidence

50%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

30–23

Winner BUF. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Points allowed+0.6 LV
• Home field+0.5 LV
• Rushing defense−0.4 BUF
• Passing defense−0.2 BUF