Baltimore Ravens at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

BAL

90%

WAS

10%

Predicted winner

BAL

Confidence

71%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–17

Winner BAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−1.3 BAL
• Rushing defense−0.7 BAL
• Points allowed+0.7 WAS
• Home field+0.5 WAS