Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos

Before kickoff

TB

48%

DEN

52%

Predicted winner

DEN

Confidence

40%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

28–10

Winner TB. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−1.0 TB
• Turnovers+0.7 DEN
• Rushing defense−0.7 TB
• Points allowed−0.5 TB