Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

LV

31%

NE

69%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–36

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense+0.9 NE
• Points allowed−0.7 LV
• Home field+0.5 NE
• Scoring differential+0.2 NE