Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers

Before kickoff

HOU

36%

PIT

64%

Predicted winner

PIT

Confidence

49%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–28

Winner PIT. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense+1.0 PIT
• Points allowed−0.6 HOU
• Home field+0.5 PIT
• Passing defense+0.3 PIT