Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

GB

34%

NO

66%

Predicted winner

NO

Confidence

50%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

37–30

Winner GB. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.5 NO
• Rushing defense+0.4 NO
• Passing defense−0.2 GB
• Win percentage+0.1 NO