Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

CHI

30%

ATL

70%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

30–26

Winner CHI. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Points allowed+0.9 ATL
• Passing defense−0.8 CHI
• Scoring+0.7 ATL
• Passing offense−0.6 CHI