Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals

Before kickoff

WAS

45%

ARI

55%

Predicted winner

ARI

Confidence

38%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

15–30

Winner ARI. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.5 ARI
• Passing defense−0.5 WAS
• Scoring+0.4 ARI
• Passing offense−0.2 WAS