New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

Before kickoff

NE

63%

SEA

37%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

43%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

30–35

Winner SEA. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense−1.6 NE
• Points allowed+0.9 SEA
• Home field+0.5 SEA
• Rushing defense−0.3 NE