Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers

Before kickoff

DEN

37%

PIT

63%

Predicted winner

PIT

Confidence

43%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–26

Winner PIT. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.5 PIT
• Rushing defense+0.4 PIT
• Turnovers−0.4 DEN
• Scoring+0.3 PIT