Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

BUF

80%

MIA

20%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

55%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

31–28

Winner BUF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense−1.2 BUF
• Points allowed+1.0 MIA
• Home field+0.5 MIA
• Passing defense−0.5 BUF