Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys

Before kickoff

ATL

30%

DAL

70%

Predicted winner

DAL

Confidence

48%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

39–40

Winner DAL. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Points allowed−0.6 ATL
• Home field+0.5 DAL
• Turnovers+0.4 DAL
• Passing defense+0.3 DAL