Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

PHI

74%

WAS

26%

Predicted winner

PHI

Confidence

43%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–27

Winner WAS. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense−1.1 PHI
• Scoring−0.7 PHI
• Home field+0.5 WAS
• Points allowed+0.4 WAS