New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

NYJ

33%

BUF

67%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

38%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–27

Winner BUF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense+0.5 BUF
• Home field+0.5 BUF
• Points allowed−0.5 NYJ
• Rushing defense−0.3 NYJ