Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

Before kickoff

LAC

70%

CIN

30%

Predicted winner

LAC

Confidence

40%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

16–13

Winner LAC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense−0.7 LAC
• Passing defense−0.6 LAC
• Home field+0.5 CIN
• Points allowed+0.4 CIN