Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

Before kickoff

IND

69%

JAX

31%

Predicted winner

IND

Confidence

39%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

20–27

Winner JAX. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense−0.8 IND
• Home field+0.5 JAX
• Scoring−0.4 IND
• Passing offense−0.3 IND