Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Before kickoff

CHI

51%

DET

49%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

27%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–23

Winner CHI. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense−0.8 CHI
• Points allowed+0.6 DET
• Home field+0.5 DET
• Scoring+0.4 DET