Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

MIA

6%

NE

94%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

87%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

27–24

Winner MIA. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring differential+1.2 NE
• Win percentage−0.9 MIA
• Scoring+0.6 NE
• Rushing defense+0.5 NE