Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears

Before kickoff

KC

47%

CHI

53%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

26–3

Winner KC. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−0.8 KC
• Rushing defense+0.6 CHI
• Passing offense+0.5 CHI
• Win percentage+0.3 CHI