Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

HOU

45%

TB

56%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

60%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–20

Winner HOU. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing offense−0.5 HOU
• Win percentage+0.4 TB
• Scoring+0.3 TB
• Rushing defense+0.3 TB