Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

BUF

17%

NE

83%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

79%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–24

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring+0.5 NE
• Scoring differential+0.5 NE
• Passing offense−0.4 BUF
• Home field+0.3 NE