Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Before kickoff

TB

43%

DET

57%

Predicted winner

DET

Confidence

61%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

38–17

Winner TB. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring−0.5 TB
• Rushing defense−0.4 TB
• QB yards/attempt−0.4 TB
• Passing offense+0.3 DET