New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Before kickoff

NE

85%

CIN

15%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

81%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

34–13

Winner NE. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Win percentage+1.2 CIN
• Scoring differential−1.0 NE
• Rushing defense−0.8 NE
• Scoring−0.7 NE