San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Before kickoff

SF

36%

NO

64%

Predicted winner

NO

Confidence

65%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

48–46

Winner SF. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense+0.4 NO
• Passing defense−0.4 SF
• Win percentage−0.3 SF
• Home field+0.3 NO