Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Before kickoff

KC

24%

NE

76%

Predicted winner

NE

Confidence

73%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

23–16

Winner KC. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense+0.6 NE
• Scoring−0.3 KC
• Home field+0.3 NE
• Scoring differential+0.3 NE