Denver Broncos at Houston Texans

Before kickoff

DEN

16%

HOU

84%

Predicted winner

HOU

Confidence

79%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

38–24

Winner DEN. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• QB yards/attempt+0.7 HOU
• Win percentage−0.7 DEN
• Scoring+0.6 HOU
• Offensive touchdowns+0.3 HOU