Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Before kickoff

TB

44%

ATL

56%

Predicted winner

ATL

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

35–22

Winner TB. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Interception rate+0.4 ATL
• Scoring−0.3 TB
• Rushing defense−0.3 TB
• Home field+0.3 ATL