Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Before kickoff

DEN

44%

BUF

56%

Predicted winner

BUF

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

3–20

Winner BUF. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Win percentage−0.6 DEN
• Home field+0.3 BUF
• Scoring differential+0.2 BUF
• Interception rate−0.1 DEN