New York Jets at Washington Commanders

Before kickoff

NYJ

43%

WAS

57%

Predicted winner

WAS

Confidence

58%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

34–17

Winner NYJ. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Rushing defense−0.5 NYJ
• Rest+0.4 WAS
• QB yards/attempt−0.4 NYJ
• Home field+0.3 WAS