New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles

Before kickoff

NE

46%

PHI

54%

Predicted winner

PHI

Confidence

56%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–10

Winner NE. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring differential−0.7 NE
• Win percentage+0.5 PHI
• Scoring−0.4 NE
• Passing defense−0.3 NE