Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins

Before kickoff

WAS

49%

MIA

51%

Predicted winner

MIA

Confidence

46%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–16

Winner WAS. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring differential−0.5 WAS
• Rest+0.4 MIA
• Rushing defense−0.4 WAS
• Home field+0.3 MIA