Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders

Before kickoff

CHI

61%

LV

39%

Predicted winner

CHI

Confidence

53%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

21–24

Winner LV. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Scoring differential−0.8 CHI
• Rushing defense−0.8 CHI
• Win percentage+0.7 LV
• QB yards/attempt+0.4 LV