New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Before kickoff

NYG

36%

TB

64%

Predicted winner

TB

Confidence

49%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

32–31

Winner NYG. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Interception rate−0.3 NYG
• Win percentage−0.3 NYG
• Home field+0.3 TB
• Offensive touchdowns+0.2 TB