Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers

Before kickoff

IND

35%

LAC

65%

Predicted winner

LAC

Confidence

37%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

24–30

Winner LAC. Kickoff was correct.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Home field+0.3 LAC
• Win percentage−0.3 IND
• Offensive touchdowns−0.2 IND
• Passing efficiency+0.1 LAC