Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Before kickoff

BUF

29%

NYJ

71%

Predicted winner

NYJ

Confidence

41%

Snapshot

In-season walk-forward

Stored from information available before kickoff in a walk-forward historical simulation. Kickoff did not publish this pick publicly at the time. Not betting advice.

Final

17–16

Winner BUF. Kickoff was incorrect.

Why the model leaned this way

Model contributions (standardized feature × coefficient). Not causal explanations.

• Passing defense−0.3 BUF
• Scoring+0.3 NYJ
• Home field+0.3 NYJ
• Win percentage+0.2 NYJ